Mathématiques industrielles
Using real option analysis to quantify ethanol policy impact on a firm's entry into and optimal operation of corn ethanol facilities
Maxwell, Christian (1) and Matt Davison (1,2,3)
(1) Department of Applied Mathematics, Western University, London, ON, (2) Department of Statistical and Actuarial Sciences, Western University, London, ON, (3) Management Sciences Group, Richard Ivey School of Business, London ON )

Ethanol crush spreads are used to model the value of a facility which produces ethanol from corn. A real options PDE is derived to investigate the effects of model parameters on management's decision to operate the facility through optimal switching and the firm's decision to enter into the project given its expected real options NPV. We present evidence of increased correlation between corn and ethanol prices, perhaps as a result of government policies which have induced more players to enter the market. Numerical solutions of the real options PDE allow us to investigate the resulting negative effects on firms. We also discuss the impact of an abrupt change in government policy, as happened in January 2012, on a firm's decision to enter the corn ethanol business.

Mardi, 18 juin, 10h00
Salle George V